Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:34:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

FF 0xffcc…4f93 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$222 (+18%) realized +$157 · open +$66

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate81%13W / 3L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$73per market

Trades / day34.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit94%portable

Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+29.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+42.8%	+29.2%	81%	75%	+2.9%
≤30d	16	+42.8%	+29.2%	81%	75%	+2.9%
≤90d	16	+42.8%	+29.2%	81%	75%	+2.9%
all	16	+42.8%	+29.2%	81%	75%	+2.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover34.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+29.2%	75%	+2.9%
10% ← realistic here	+16.9%	69%	-6.9%
15%	+5.6%	50%	-15.9%
20%	-4.8%	38%	-24.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +43% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +87% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$24 vs −$50 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$66

Realized+$157

Unrealized+$66

Win rate (resolved)81%

Wins / losses13 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage1d

Avg bet$73

Trades / day34.0

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	0¢	50¢	$0	$66	+$66 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	Jun 19	$34	−$34	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 19	$114	−$114	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 19	$25	+$6	+23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 19	$201	+$9	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 19	$101	+$18	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 19	$129	+$91	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Jun 19	$127	−$3	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$4	+72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Jun 19	$31	+$19	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Jun 19	$108	+$39	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Jun 19	$101	+$25	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Jun 19	$26	+$18	+70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 19	$5	+$19	+351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 19	$31	+$8	+27%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$20	+$17	+86%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	Jun 19	$81	+$35	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$102	0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$31	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$25	7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	96¢	$100	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$100	10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$101	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$26	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$103	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$5	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$103	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	30m
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	9¢	$5	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$101	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$26	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$9	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	48m
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$26	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$5	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$146	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$102	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$101	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Down	64¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$38	1h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners	SELL Over	100¢	$95	1h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	37¢	$3	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.54 · official $0.00 · 46 history records