Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffd3…9d56 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 550d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%40W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$6
crypto 11% +$2
other 5% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +0.2% -9.3% 73% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

550d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses40 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage550d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $68 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 04 $67 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? Mar 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? Mar 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $39 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 02 $37 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Sep 02 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 02 $51 +$1 +1%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jul 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 02 $7 $0 +2%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 18 $44 $0 -1%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Lee Nak-yon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $5,631 −$6 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 05 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Oregon win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Francois-Philippe Champagne be the next leader of the Canadian Li Feb 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will AZ Alkmaar win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? Feb 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 24-31? Feb 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Jan 22 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 30d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 61d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $43 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $57 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $7 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in February? BUY No 100¢ $39 121d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $11 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 98¢ $22 149d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $39 150d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $27 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $41 182d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $39 211d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $19 242d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $42 243d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 273d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 99¢ $37 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $14 301d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $50 302d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $51 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 363d
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $21 365d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 392d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 393d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $14 394d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 426d
Bitcoin all time high in April? BUY No 99¢ $4 426d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.06 · official $71.06 (match) · 115 history records