Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:09:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffd6…5788 other 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$59 (+0%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 47L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 60% −$13
other 18% −$14
politics 17% −$11
sports 3% +$96
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.2% 17% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 53 +6.7% -3.5% 30% 21% -8.2%
all 66 +5.2% -4.8% 29% 17% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 17% -9.3%
10% -13.9% 17% -18.0%
15% -22.2% 15% -25.9%
20% -29.8% 12% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage604d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 27 $64 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $22 $0 -0%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $340 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $337 $0 -0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $349 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $175 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 06 $66 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $172 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $344 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $175 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $353 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $168 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $184 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $174 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $174 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $170 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $177 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $7 +$6 +86%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $9 +$7 +70%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $8 +$7 +90%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $11 +$8 +75%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Suns vs. Hornets Apr 06 $10 +$5 +50%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $31 +$10 +33%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 06 $23 +$18 +79%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 06 $49 $0 +1%
Stars vs. Flyers Mar 30 $25 +$35 +144%
Canucks vs. Flames Mar 29 $30 +$19 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 18m
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 4h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 20h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 3d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 7d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $21 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $21 14d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 23d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $33 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $33 23d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $39 24d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $33 25d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $34 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 27d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $22 28d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $31 29d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $31 29d
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $7 30d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.42 · official $149.42 (match) · 288 history records