Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffd6…c19e crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-6%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day120.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$48
other 11% −$7
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -9.9% -18.5% 33% 20% -22.5%
≤30d 30 -9.9% -18.5% 33% 20% -22.5%
≤90d 30 -9.9% -18.5% 33% 20% -22.5%
all 30 -9.9% -18.5% 33% 20% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 20% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 17% -29.9%
15% -33.4% 10% -36.7%
20% -39.9% 10% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day120.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? No 27¢ 28¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 31¢ 30¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 78¢ 76¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $11 −$4 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $34 −$15 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -48%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -31%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -10%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $25 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$39 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $80 −$32 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$69 +459%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $20 −$3 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$5 -38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $4 +$3 +68%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -62%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +29%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$5 +208%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 5m
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 18m
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 29¢ $2 26m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? BUY No 78¢ $7 35m
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 35m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $8 35m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? BUY No 26¢ $7 47m
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 50m
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $7 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL No 10¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 27¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 30¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 15¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.20 · official $99.20 (match) · 230 history records