Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:31:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffd7…031a crypto 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-5%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%50W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day50.8pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$7
other 8% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -15.9% -23.9% 53% 43% -17.1%
≤30d 95 -15.9% -23.9% 53% 43% -17.1%
≤90d 95 -15.9% -23.9% 53% 43% -17.1%
all 95 -15.9% -23.9% 53% 43% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 43% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 35% -25.0%
15% -37.8% 32% -32.3%
20% -43.9% 23% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses50 / 45
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day50.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 67¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 51¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.34 · official $4.74 (match) · 260 history records