Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffda…b08f crypto 90 markets active 6d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate79%71W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -7.3% -16.1% 76% 38% -24.9%
≤30d 90 +5.7% -4.3% 79% 54% -10.4%
≤90d 90 +5.7% -4.3% 79% 54% -10.4%
all 90 +5.7% -4.3% 79% 54% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 54% -10.4%
10% -13.5% 37% -19.0%
15% -21.9% 29% -26.8%
20% -29.5% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses71 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $62 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $62 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records