Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

FF 0xffde…098a other 24 markets active 3d ago coverage 228d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$813 (-32%) realized −$901 · open +$88

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR32%break-even

Win rate58%11W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$107per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$888now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$5

7 days+$5

14 days+$5

30 days+$5

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +32%

net ROI/market (all)-32.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-18.2%	-26.0%	60%	60%	-7.5%
≤30d	9	-8.7%	-17.4%	67%	67%	-8.3%
≤90d	9	-8.7%	-17.4%	67%	67%	-8.3%
all	19	-25.3%	-32.5%	58%	32%	-58.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.5%	32%	-58.1%
10%	-38.9%	21%	-62.1%
15%	-44.8%	16%	-65.8%
20%	-50.2%	5%	-69.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 56% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

45% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -34% → late -18% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$126 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.11 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage

Net worth$888

Realized−$901

Unrealized+$88

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses11 / 8

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)19 / 24

History coverage228d

Avg bet$107

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	16¢	$200	$317	+$117 (+59%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	19¢	$200	$221	+$21 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$200	$205	+$5 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	5¢	$200	$145	−$55 (-28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$20	+$5	+23%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 21	$30	−$30	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$100	+$13	+13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	+$37	+73%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$50	+$22	+44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$20	+$4	+21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$50	+$24	+48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 16	$50	−$50	-99%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Al	Nov 12	$400	−$400	-100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F	Nov 11	$221	−$221	-100%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Nov 11	$20	$0	+0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Nov 11	$29	$0	+0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	Nov 11	$38	$0	+1%
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?	Nov 11	$307	−$72	-23%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08?	Nov 08	$152	−$152	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5?	Nov 07	$20	+$2	+10%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 5?	Nov 07	$26	+$2	+9%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5?	Nov 05	$60	−$60	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$30	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$20	3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi	BUY	11¢	$72	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	88¢	$100	6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	27¢	$20	6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$50	8d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$20	8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$50	8d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$206	8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$205	8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$205	8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$205	8d
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Al	BUY Shelton	80¢	$400	224d
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F	BUY Fritz	57¢	$221	225d
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	SELL Yes	95¢	$20	225d
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	SELL No	96¢	$29	225d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	SELL No	95¢	$38	225d
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?	SELL Yes	85¢	$133	225d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08?	BUY Yes	65¢	$152	228d
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?	SELL Yes	65¢	$102	228d
Will James Solomon win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?	BUY Yes	98¢	$307	231d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5?	BUY Down	93¢	$30	231d
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	BUY No	96¢	$29	231d
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	BUY Yes	95¢	$20	231d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	BUY No	94¢	$38	231d
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5?	BUY Up	91¢	$20	231d
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5?	BUY Down	93¢	$30	231d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 5?	BUY Down	92¢	$26	231d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $887.98 · official $887.98 (match) · 48 history records