Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xffe0…919e weather 1563 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,454 (-3%) realized −$4,394 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate90%1397W / 163L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$713
7 days−$837
14 days−$942
30 days−$1,589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$1,197
other 4% −$345
politics 4% −$212
crypto 4% +$131
sports 0% +$94
world 0% −$309
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.8% -24.7% 75% 31% -45.1%
≤30d 308 -5.0% -14.1% 93% 5% -12.9%
≤90d 1560 -3.1% -12.3% 90% 9% -10.8%
all 1560 -3.1% -12.3% 90% 9% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 9% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 5% -19.3%
15% -28.4% 3% -27.1%
20% -35.4% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$39 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$470
Realized−$4,394
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1397 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1560 / 1563
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$108
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1560 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $200 $163 −$37 (-18%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Jun 18 $290 −$290 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Jun 18 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $81 +$27 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$28 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $91 +$27 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $100 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $181 −$180 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 07 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 90°F or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 6? Jun 07 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 07 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$5 +51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $81 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 47h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 6d
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 6d
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 89¢ $100 6d
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $100 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $100 8d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $60 9d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.99 · official $464.73 · 3500 history records