Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffe3…ffa2 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 468d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%21W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
other 37% +$1
politics 14% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 47 -1.2% -10.6% 45% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

468d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses21 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage468d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $36 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $65 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $22 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $36 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will "English" win the Tony for Best Play 2025? Jun 10 $6 $0 +3%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 06 $7 $0 -0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $7 $0 +7%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will Pacers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador May 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? May 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Prince Edward Island Apr 26 $7 $0 -4%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 25 $8 $0 -2%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 22 $12 $0 -4%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 64¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $16 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $17 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 66¢ $33 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $36 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 35h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $24 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $22 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $9 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $31 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $1 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $32 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $32 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records