Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:18:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffe7…471d sports 1599 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,080 (+2%) realized +$6,130 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate60%943W / 637L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$765est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2,325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,935
7 days+$216
14 days+$311
30 days−$1,864
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$1,861
sports 38% +$5,832
world 0% +$141
finance 0% +$544
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +32.1% +19.5% 67% 67% -7.6%
≤30d 110 -10.3% -18.9% 51% 48% -14.8%
≤90d 1324 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 57% -7.0%
all 1580 -3.3% -12.5% 60% 57% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 57% -6.6%
10% -20.9% 44% -15.5%
15% -28.5% 32% -23.7%
20% -35.5% 23% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$121 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$2,325
Realized+$6,130
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses943 / 637
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$765
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1580 / 1599
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$165
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $500 $589 +$89 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $500 $573 +$73 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $500 $419 −$81 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $250 $197 −$53 (-21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 76¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-7%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 40¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-49%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-62%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 14¢ $40 $11 −$29 (-72%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 6¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-81%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $507 +$473 +93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $503 +$138 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $203 +$241 +119%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,514 +$660 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,220 +$278 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$40 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$34 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$20 +20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $81 +$52 +65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $505 −$500 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,508 −$1,500 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $508 +$636 +125%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,522 +$1,363 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $503 −$500 -100%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $546 −$542 -99%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $123 +$24 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $39 +$18 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $50 +$15 +29%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 08 $214 +$85 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $22 −$22 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1,213 −$1,200 -99%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 03 $544 +$195 +36%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $28 +$12 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $293 +$35 +12%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $41 −$41 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MV Jun 01 $101 −$101 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 01 $204 −$204 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 01 $356 −$356 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 01 $1,006 −$506 -50%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $1,008 −$434 -43%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $639 −$639 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $560 −$560 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,395 +$490 +35%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $50 +$19 +38%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 30 $100 +$10 +10%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2,423 +$1,381 +57%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? May 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $50 +$24 +48%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $101 +$91 +90%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $202 +$76 +38%
Will Olympiacos win the 2025-26 Euroleague? May 25 $508 +$626 +123%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $504 −$504 -100%
Will Burnley FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 +$51 +250%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$24 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $5 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $20 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $50 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $503 23h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $81 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $101 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,514 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,220 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 46¢ $508 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,508 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $507 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 44¢ $508 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 5d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 78¢ $419 5d
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Fenerbahce 78¢ $127 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026 BUY 43¢ $20 6d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY Barcelona 83¢ $123 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 68¢ $39 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,324.85 · official $2,332.37 (match) · 3500 history records