Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffea…96f8 politics 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 666d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 64L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$12
other 25% −$4
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 67 -3.3% -12.5% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

666d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage666d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $55 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 28 $57 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $56 $0 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ollie Watkins be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win the NFC South? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Solana ETF approved in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Justin Herbert win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
North Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $250 in December? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Monkeypox lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Laphonza Butler be the next DNC chair? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Doug Burgum confirmed as Secretary of the Interior? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Ross Smith win the 2024-25 PDC World Championship? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024? Dec 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the 49ers win the NFC Championship? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Carolina Panthers finish with the worst record in the NFL? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC West? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to over 10 years in gun case? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bill Clinton attend presidential inauguration? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Drew Allar win the Heisman Trophy? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Los Angeles FC win the MLS Cup? Nov 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Vikings win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 17 $0 $0 -3%
Will Jalen Hurts win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "MAGA" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 13h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 19d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 20d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $56 30d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 30d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 41d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 42d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $56 52d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $56 52d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 73d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $57 91d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $57 92d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 102d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 102d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 104d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $57 104d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $57 107d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $56 107d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 112d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 113d
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $56 113d
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $56 114d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 140d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 155d
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 SELL No 100¢ $54 214d
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 BUY No 100¢ $54 253d
Will Laphonza Butler be the next DNC chair? SELL No 99¢ $0 554d
Will Laphonza Butler be the next DNC chair? BUY No 99¢ $0 554d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records