Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xffea…62fc
other · 174 markets active 4d ago
0.0score
−$2,515 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,515 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
Chart Positions 0 History 174 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$21
14 days−$21
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Men's Group C - Germany vs. Latvia Germany 72¢ $3,785 $0 −$3,785 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Pistons Lakers 50¢ $1,529 $0 −$1,529 (-100%)
Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? Yes 94¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $558 −$21 -4%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -1%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 04 $2 $0 -2%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 03 $3 $0 +1%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $21 −$1 -4%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 13 $1 $0 -0%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 13 $1 $0 -4%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House May 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +4%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack? Apr 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Manuel Saavedra win the 2026 Santa Cruz de la Sierra mayoral elec Apr 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 04 $1 $0 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $2 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 04 $2 $0 +2%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $2 $0 +5%
Lakers vs. Pistons Mar 23 $1,529 −$1,529 -100%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? Mar 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parli Mar 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? Mar 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 6, 2026? Mar 22 $1 $0 +1%
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026? Mar 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? Mar 22 $2 $0 +7%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? Mar 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility? Mar 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026? Mar 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will there be between 10 and 13 US strikes on Somalia in February 2026 Mar 09 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 54% −$2,471
politics 45% −$44
other 1% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $14 3d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $18 3d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $8 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $22 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $16 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $9 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $10 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $15 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $12 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $8 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $5 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $8 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $7 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $108 5d
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.8% -13.0% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 36% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 45 -1.2% -10.6% 67% 0% -73.9%
all 174 +0.5% -9.0% 74% 14% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 14% -23.8%
10% -17.7% 10% -31.1%
15% -25.7% 8% -37.8%
20% -33.0% 7% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 849 history records