Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffeb…695e other 247 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$48
sports 22% −$22
politics 8% −$6
crypto 7% −$5
economics 6% −$7
culture 6% −$6
world 4% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 246 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)246 / 247
History coverage137d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $193 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $338 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $110 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $129 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $266 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $159 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 20 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $257 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $344 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $157 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $631 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $280 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $525 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $437 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $273 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $359 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $440 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $121 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $883 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $471 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $382 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $60 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $313 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $279 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 27m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 3h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $53 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 6h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 7h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 8h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $53 13h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 14h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 16h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 17h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 19h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $54 20h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 23h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 25h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $54 25h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $54 26h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 28h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 29h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 34h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 36h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 43h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.13 · official $53.13 (match) · 1451 history records