Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FF 0xffeb…f657 crypto 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$118 (+10%) realized +$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%44W / 60L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$22
14 days−$26
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% +$38
sports 24% +$16
other 5% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -6.0% -14.9% 26% 26% -13.2%
≤30d 55 -6.6% -15.5% 27% 27% -5.0%
≤90d 101 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 42% -5.6%
all 104 -2.9% -12.1% 42% 41% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 41% -4.7%
10% -20.5% 37% -13.8%
15% -28.2% 30% -22.1%
20% -35.2% 19% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses44 / 60
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)104 / 104
History coverage96d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 104 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $24 +$13 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$12 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$11 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$7 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$21 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$8 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $17 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $14 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 09 $11 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 02 $22 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 02 $17 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 01 $18 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $14 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $17 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $37 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $17 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $17 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $18 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records