Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffef…e214 sports 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,682 (+12%) realized +$2,687 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%83W / 81L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,865
7 days+$1,411
14 days+$1,738
30 days+$2,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% +$2,700
sports 22% +$59
economics 6% −$87
crypto 5% +$12
tech 0% −$58
culture 0% −$18
world 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -44.4% -49.7% 27% 25% +3.2%
≤30d 46 -37.5% -43.5% 30% 28% +7.6%
≤90d 48 -38.2% -44.1% 29% 27% +7.2%
all 164 -5.6% -14.6% 51% 43% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 43% +1.4%
10% -22.8% 39% -8.3%
15% -30.2% 34% -17.2%
20% -37.1% 28% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$69 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$2,687
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses83 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)164 / 167
History coverage233d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 $0 -9%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $604 +$603 +100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $663 +$2,532 +382%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $997 −$997 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $307 −$307 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$22 +73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $637 +$101 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $984 +$492 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $45 +$30 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $680 +$15 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $555 +$135 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $229 −$58 -25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $422 −$107 -25%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $179 −$179 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $804 +$149 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $193 −$24 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $654 +$723 +110%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Magic vs. Bulls Jun 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $73 −$73 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $59 −$59 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jun 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jun 13 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies Jun 13 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08? Jun 13 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jun 13 $241 −$241 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-04? Jun 13 $249 −$249 -100%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $140 +$71 +51%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $88 +$20 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $206 +$327 +159%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $395 +$277 +70%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 13 $178 −$14 -8%
Knicks vs. Warriors Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Rockets vs. Hawks Feb 21 $89 +$44 +50%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 21 $202 +$28 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 21¢ $1 12m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 22¢ $1 12m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 23¢ $1 38m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $1 39m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 23¢ $1 51m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $1 52m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 24¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 39¢ $37 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $523 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 19¢ $50 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 19¢ $50 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 19¢ $256 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 22¢ $307 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $78 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $134 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $119 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $743 29h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $29 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $637 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $252 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $505 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $103 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $45 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.45 · official $95.45 (match) · 499 history records