Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:35:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xfff1…9401
world · 34 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$6 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage469d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 1 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 14¢ 16¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $62 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $48 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $75 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $38 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $3 $0 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $8 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $1 $0 -7%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 22 $13 $0 -4%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 15 $14 +$2 +14%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 02 $3 $0 +13%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $29 $0 -0%
Solana above $130 on March 21? Mar 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 28? Mar 20 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 65% +$4
other 11% $0
politics 11% +$2
sports 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $12 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $9 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $15 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $24 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $14 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $12 22h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $2 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 22h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 66¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $38 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $34 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.0%
all 33 +0.5% -9.0% 48% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -8.9%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.02 · official $13.02 (match) · 132 history records