Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xfff7…aa2f other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$17
politics 25% −$6
economics 3% −$1
sports 2% +$15
world 2% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -3.5% -12.7% 10% 7% -9.6%
all 108 -3.5% -12.7% 10% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 7% -9.6%
10% -21.1% 6% -18.2%
15% -28.7% 6% -26.1%
20% -35.7% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×7.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage84d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $293 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 10 $286 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $39 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $53 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 01 $76 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $31 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $297 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $247 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $264 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $766 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $261 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $263 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $246 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $261 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $251 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $243 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $261 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $508 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $250 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $243 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $265 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $260 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $263 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $272 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,311 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $266 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $256 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 53m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 17h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 22h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 47h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 4d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 6d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 7d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 11d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 14d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 15d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 15d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $34 17d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.92 · official $67.92 (match) · 302 history records