Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xfffe…4e6c sports 289 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,178 (-4%) realized −$3,178 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%145W / 130L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$893est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,083now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$21
14 days−$899
30 days−$2,636
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$68
world 20% −$2,513
other 3% +$279
culture 0% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -14.6% -22.7% 49% 38% -9.4%
≤30d 131 -8.7% -17.4% 48% 42% -15.0%
≤90d 275 +6.5% -3.7% 53% 39% -12.2%
all 275 +6.5% -3.7% 53% 39% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 39% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 32% -20.6%
15% -21.3% 29% -28.3%
20% -29.0% 23% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$183 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$3,083
Realized−$3,178
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses145 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$893
Open positions18
Markets (closed)275 / 289
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$268
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $1,102 $1,226 +$124 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 100¢ $502 $913 +$410 (+82%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 65¢ 32¢ $748 $370 −$378 (-51%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 84¢ 59¢ $193 $135 −$58 (-30%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $103 $107 +$4 (+4%)
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 100¢ $80 $100 +$20 (+25%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $44 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $31 $43 +$13 (+41%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 27¢ $61 $33 −$28 (-46%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 6¢ $111 $10 −$101 (-91%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 52¢ 53¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Diego Lopes become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-40%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 78¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $243 +$57 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $359 +$588 +164%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $245 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $81 −$13 -16%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2,213 +$399 +18%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $754 −$750 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $637 +$363 +57%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$10 +178%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $493 −$487 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $572 +$430 +75%
Will MOUZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $161 +$148 +92%
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $219 +$282 +129%
Will Monte qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $167 +$25 +15%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $192 −$188 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $186 −$181 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $544 +$482 +89%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,885 +$269 +14%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $35 +$34 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $568 −$335 -59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $302 −$155 -51%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $227 −$226 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $549 −$542 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,311 −$430 -33%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $74 −$15 -20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,667 +$68 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $67 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $678 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $429 −$423 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $110 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $307 −$266 -87%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $117 +$51 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,946 +$809 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $316 +$176 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $184 −$181 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $684 +$271 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $690 −$678 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$20 +101%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $416 −$409 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $586 +$427 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $360 +$123 +34%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $550 −$376 -68%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $766 +$348 +45%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $248 −$245 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $43 0m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $38 16m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $119 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $15 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $28 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $100 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $80 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $85 3h
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 5h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 65¢ $5 7h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 65¢ $2 14h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 30h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 30h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 31h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 32h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 32h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 33h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 33h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 64¢ $0 33h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,083.45 · official $3,083.55 (match) · 3500 history records